Pseudoscience of Statistics – How We Fool Us

whereareyouonthegaussiancurve

I Have Pre-Determined Your Answer
Based on How I Asked the Question: Free Will?

There is a growing reliance on pseudoscience to determine society’s future direction masquerading as science to those who should know the difference but do not. I am reminded of the Bible, which should be our guide in all things, that those who reject God’s truth band together in order to convince themselves that they are in fact speaking truth because there are so many of them speaking the same “truth” (Ro 1:28-32)!

This election illustrates, again, the fallacy of statistics in areas that are not measurable {or the application of “hard science” in the areas of “soft science” (I choke on this phrase) such as sociology, psychology, education and nursing/healthcare}.

People Bell Curve Illustration

Gaussian (Bell) Curve Presupposes
Omniscience, a Logical Fallacy

Nearly all Western education teaches directly or implied the truth that the world is ordered according to the Gaussian Curve. Notice our above graphic and see that each “person group” is actually a Gaussian curve collectively gathered into a macro Gaussian Curve. All these diverse groups contribute to the amalgamation of the unified whole or as the slogan goes, “Unity Through Diversity” {as long as it is those approved diverse groups contributing to our predefined unified goal(s)}. The Gaussian Curve makes no claims but by necessity is predicated on the simple fact that all variables are known in order for this curve to have any validity. Sure, it claims to have outliers, those who do not quite fit the mold, but these are deemed as “not normal” and therefore are either rejected or made to fit the “norm”, as defined by the majority. In fact, omniscience is the prerequisite for accepting this curve. Modern man does not overtly claim to have “all knowledge” but he does act as if he does in his worldview.

For example, while claiming to seek for more knowledge about creation, scientists limit their understanding to evolutionary processes that they have defined claiming that these are the only valid processes. While denying the claim of omniscience they have overtly demonstrated omniscience by claiming that only evolutionary processes are valid processes. If you believe in different processes then you are labeled as “non-scientific” and irrelevant. How did this come about? Through the efforts of people to discredit the Bible so they would not be held to its truth of universal sin and non-universal salvation {that sinful man rejects the truth of the Bible and only a few come to salvation (Mt 7:13-14)}. Nowhere is this more evident that in the pseudoscience of statistics and polls.

Polls are the attempts to use scientific methods to determine people’s choices. It is the application of “hard scientific” methods to “soft science” subjects which is nothing more than morphing science into pseudoscience to legitimize foregone conclusions. For instance, in the first graphic the question is, “Where are you on the Gaussian Curve?” This question implies that there is no other option than to place yourself into one of the labeled positions. This is “false omniscience” and the logical fallacy of the “False Dilemma”. Thus, I have pre-determined your answer based on my question in order to obtain the result for which I am paid to obtain to support the conclusion of the payor. This is how nearly every poll determines its results. Thus, seeking to foretell the future via polls nearly always leads to false conclusions. This was proved sensationally during the Truman-Dewey election and again in the recent Trump-Clinton election.

Life is random because omniscience is unobtainable by man. “Randomness is the result of incomplete information at some layer. It is functionally indistinguishable from ‘true’ or ‘physical’ randomness. Simply, what I cannot guess is random because my knowledge about causes is incomplete, not necessarily because the process has truly unpredictable properties (Black Swan Logic)”. The Bible said this two thousand years ago in the book of Hebrews when it said that the physical reality is based upon a more concrete spiritual reality that lies beyond our ability to discover (He 11:1-2). Modern man rejects the Bible though he, in fact, rests upon the same definition of faith. Rather than using the Bible modern man uses pseudoscience to “prove” his claims of omniscience through the development of charts based on statistics, most of which are invalid as discussed above. Thus, modern man proves the truth of the Bible in rejecting the truth of God by embracing ever more degrading life styles while deploring the accompanying violence the Bible warned would occur (Ro 1:18-27).

Why does this occur? Because people have a confirmation bias, they want to prove what they already believe.  Or, our worldview shapes not only our beliefs but the “evidence” needed to “prove” the truth of our beliefs. Yet, things always occur that destroy or disrupt our empirical worldview. We call it randomness or change or luck but it is actually those processes that are beyond our knowledge base or beyond our ability to determine because they are spiritual. There is a spiritual war and without the Bible we cannot know the truth since we have no mechanism for peering into the spiritual realm. Many interpret mistakenly that the absence of evidence means there is no evidence rather than their own shortcomings. It is impossible to understand what we do not understand without insight from another source {Bible}.

Modern man instinctively understands this and proves this by seeking for “knowledge” from Gnostic sources; or, as I have already stated, using pseudoscience to prove the truth of the unknowable in the realms of soft science. Looking for guidance from “super people”, hidden knowledge, empirical means alone and ancient “truths” supplant the truth of the Scripture in order to shore up the sinful truths already accepted. In other words, we use pseudoscience to fool ourselves into thinking we have the truth when in fact we prove constantly that we do not have the truth in failed predictions. This election was not a referendum on Democrats, Republicans, Beltway insiders or any other such nonsense. Each election is a referendum on us and the fallacy that we can “pick” an omniscient candidate who has the answers we do not have to lead us into a utopia. While the electorate rejected Ms Clinton and the extreme Democratic policies they have installed a person who will follow a pragmatic philosophy to accomplish little while beginning a new dynasty of Trumpites in the form of his children. He is as ignorant as us in understanding one’s inability to predict and control complex systems because of ignorance. When the Black Swan lands it will not be due to inability to prepare but because we are inherently ignorant and refuse to understand and accept the spiritual dimension from which this physical dimension was created. We will be fooled by our pseudoscientific rhetoric into believing we can control the uncontrollable. This is a shame for Christians who have the truth to know better but have exchanged the truth for a lie in order to gain acceptance of normalcy in today’s world (Ro 1:25). They will gain neither acceptance from the world nor from God and find themselves the most pitiful of all people!

Author: LeeS

Retired naval nurse, Dad, Husband, Christian who seeks to share the Bible with those who want more than the superficial milk given out in the majority of today's churches. God has taught me through hard experiences as well as through book learning (Master's of Ministry, Doctor of Ministry).